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    5. 新新聞 2019/10/09 第1701期

    新新聞 2019/10/09 第1701期

    Publisher 新新聞 /新新聞文化事業股份有限公司
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    2019/10/09
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    ID
    176989
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    1701期簡介
    【封面故事】搖擺選民決定2020大選勝敗

    搖擺選票倒向何方大選決勝關鍵 怎麼抓住他們?
    何處會翻盤、藍綠如何精準操盤、第三勢力空間在哪?大數據掌握國會選情

    面對明年國會改選,藍綠兩黨力拚席次過半,宣傳造勢陸空齊發,試圖將選票最大化。選舉專家分析各地選情時常從藍綠基本盤切入,大範圍選區看似有脈絡可循,但基本盤卻未必是票房保證。

    哪些縣市、縣市中的哪些選區、選區中的哪些里,它們的選民在過去選舉中容易「搖擺」,轉換支持的政黨?如果能掌握這些關鍵地區,就可能翻轉選局。而新興的政黨如台灣民眾黨也可能有機會藉搖擺選區崛起。

    大數據分析公司實義分析綜整2004年到2018年共10次縣市立委及市議員選舉的投票結果,設計「選舉命盤:搖擺區探知系統」,藉此計算出各選區甚至各里的「搖擺指數」及「搖擺選票」。

    以台北市第3選區為例,此區上演蔣萬安、吳怡農「雙帥對決」。儘管外界認為此區結構藍大於綠,但搖擺選票數在73個立委選區中卻擠進前20%,顯見吳怡農力求翻轉仍有可為。

    而被視為綠得出油的台南市,前國民黨主席洪秀柱「御駕親征」第6選區,挑戰民進黨王定宇。以這套探知系統分析發現,洪秀柱如能客製化競選策略,未必沒有一搏機會。

    在單一選區的立委選戰中,力拚勝選的候選人,更需要找出細節裡的天使,爭取搖擺選民的支持。

    ◎張家豪

    〈完整內容請見新新聞1701期〉
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    專欄論壇
    01【編輯台報告】搖擺的選民
    06【顧爾德專欄】中港關係走上不歸路 顧爾德
    07【林庭瑤專欄】「例外狀態」是獨裁的前奏 林庭瑤
    08【梁國源專欄】類比是探索未知事物的重要工具 梁國源
    09【葉耀元專欄】美國的貿易戰不只針對中國 葉耀元

    64【宋承恩專欄】動用緊急命令香港自陷攬炒陷阱 宋承恩
    66【蕭子昂專欄】川普是習大大的好朋友 蕭子昂
    68【陳錦稷專欄】預算審議的生理與病理 陳錦稷
    88【加藤嘉一專欄】北京的國慶與香港的國殤 加藤嘉一
    90【左眼看新聞】吳敦義想用不執政換不分區? 汪仁玠
    91【米果專欄】台灣戲劇的機會米 米 果

    封面故事
    24【封面故事】搖擺選票倒向何方 大選決勝關鍵 張家豪
    30【封面故事】劇烈輪替區蕭景田最終役戰陳素月 張家豪
    32【封面故事】龍燕之爭加長賽潭雅神后區擺向哪方? 李佳穎
    34【封面故事】台南六選區洪秀柱用統獨挑戰王定宇 潘維庭
    36【封面故事】苗栗二選區徐定禎披綠袍另有打算 潘維庭
    38【封面故事】蘇巧慧、黃志雄搶三.九萬中間選票 黃信維
    40【封面故事】兩大黨塑造對決邊緣化時力女將 黃信維

    政治社會
    47【政治】韓想出國鍍金加分又怕規格輸蔡扣分 張家豪
    48【政治】最速件陣前換將拿李哲華祭旗震懾黨內 晏明強
    50【政治】棄韓保國會?藍營「分進合擊」衝席次 晏明強
    52【政治】賴清德十月中訪美林飛帆先飛探路 胡宥心
    53【政治】總席次上看五十五綠營選情倒吃甘蔗 胡宥心
    55【政治】誓奪八席民眾黨廣發不分區「英雄帖」 蕭介雲

    60【軍事】中科院打造港口塔台效能勝外國貨 蕭介雲
    62【軍事】專業又好用替代役「眾望所歸」大復活 李順德

    財經產業
    57【財經】召喚民眾參與綠能陽光伏特家領先售電 李佳穎

    兩岸國際
    10【香港步向戒嚴】香港下一站貝爾法斯特 劉細良
    16【香港步向戒嚴】回歸已無光榮北京動用殖民時期惡法 關震海
    19【香港步向戒嚴】經濟至上論讓中國對香港下錯藥 黎蝸藤

    72【兩岸】護何韻詩逐李毅政府被控雙重標準 林庭瑤
    74【兩岸】十一電影硬是要愛國唱主旋律表忠 賈選凝
    76【台灣與世界】龍象鷹三角習題習近平再拉攏莫迪 林廷輝
    78【台灣與世界】江牧淳案在台發生她恐面對無理臨檢 施威全
    80【台灣與世界】美立法保障台灣、香港哪個較有效? 吳建輝
    83【台灣與世界】四十三人喪生悲劇警示歐洲橋樑危機 鄭傑憶
    86【台灣與世界】反彈劾川普左帶風向右戰國會 黃靜華

    文化生活
    70【文化】老蔣眼中釘活化了香港的自由思想 楊宗墨
    92【小旅行】糕餅、羹湯、冰粉粿鹿港最懂你的胃 汪仁玠
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    Released
    2019/10/09
    Language
    Traditional Chinese
    File format
    PDF: Fit in large screen
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    176989

    新新聞

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